This study examines the influence of major fluctuations in the number of students enrolling at university on the probability of dropout or a switch to a different course of study. Findings show that a pronounced increase in student numbers leads to more dropouts.
The results suggest a significant relationship between positive cohort growth and the probability of dropout. A reduction in student numbers, on the other hand, does not increase the probability of persistence. Despite the negative influence of a big cohort on the probability of persistence, no statistically significant relationship exists, by contrast, between the change in student numbers and the probability of a student switching to a different course of study.
Diem, Andrea & Stefan C. Wolter (2019). A place too crowded to study: The impact of student cohort growth on the probability of university dropout. Hungarian Educational Research Journal, 9 (2), 189-212